A few weeks ago, during the European Football Championship, football betting games were once again highly popular. The principle of these games is quite simple: several people, typically colleagues or a circle of friends, register on a special website and then compete against each other by predicting the outcomes of matches in a championship. Whoever predicts the most games correctly wins. The games are free and, in most cases, serve as a harmless pastime where there is either nothing at stake or a prize of little value to be won. The fun is the main focus at 20Bet.
Amateurs Often Predict Correctly in Football Betting
If you have ever participated in such a betting game, you may have noticed that it is often not the so-called football experts who are right, but rather those who only watch football during the European or World Cup.
This everyday experience shows that predicting the outcome of a football match depends less on “expert knowledge” and more on chance. The same applies to other sporting events as well. In fact, experts in gambling addiction have long agreed that chance plays the main role in sports betting and that it should therefore be classified as a game of chance.
If someone believes they have an advantage in betting due to their knowledge of a particular sport, this can be a risky misconception that may lead to increased gambling.
Overview Study Published by Researchers from the Universities of Hamburg and Bremen
Recently, a study by researchers from the Universities of Hamburg and Bremen confirmed that, in sports betting, it is primarily chance that determines who wins. The researchers reviewed a total of nine so-called “betting studies”: studies that examined predictions regarding the outcomes of sports or game events. The results of almost all studies were clear: whether someone has prior knowledge of a particular sport does not significantly impact the accuracy of the predictions. This “non-effect” was evident across various sports.
The researchers’ conclusion is therefore: Sports betting should clearly be classified as gambling – and should be regulated accordingly.
The risk of losing control over betting behavior is particularly pronounced among amateur athletes, according to a study from 2013, which we report on here.
Caution: Advertising for Sports Betting
During the European Football Championship, there were many newspaper articles jokingly suggesting that there are 83 million football national coaches in Germany. While it is unlikely that there are that many who believe they know football well, there certainly are a significant number. This is not a problem in itself. It can even be fun to get excited about penalties or free kicks and to think you know better than others – as long as no money is wagered on this supposed expertise.
Additionally, during the EM 2021, it was noticeable how closely editorial sports content was linked with advertising for sports betting. For example, on the website of a well-known weekly newspaper, the betting odds for a sports betting offer could be found directly below the displayed match scores. One click would take you to the gambling website where you could place a bet. In the online medium, this quick access to sports betting is akin to the proximity to alcohol: the beer in the refrigerator is literally closer than the beer in the pub, just as the smartphone in your pocket is closer than the nearest betting shop.